Covid 19 situation now?

[Mikel1]

Just chatted with another acquaintance who postponed a meeting due to having the “flu”. I’d err to caution things seem to be heating up here quickly. My other acquaintance is up to 93% on his oxygen saturation tests and will be off the respirator when he hits 97%. The other person I know is back to work, but still suffers from strong headaches. All anecdotal, but none the less reality.

[jesm]

We are seeing a similar significant rise in infections as currently seen in USA. Last week we moved back to more restrictive regulations on auto access, park closures, etc.
As we look a month out, our climate normally moves to our version of “ winter” meaning more indoor time and even higher risks of contagion.
If you look at numbers of infections, hospitalizations and deaths Mexico tracks USA closely when the 3:1 population differential is accounted. Both nations show heightened risks.
All told the near term say 3-6 months ahead are not promising.
I hope to get updated info on our local ICU capacities and will post here if successful.

[Mikel1]

Sadly the person I mentioned in the hospital, despite having a rally, passed away Monday evening. Please err to caution in your daily routines.

[McNally del Campo]

Jesm or others, Where is the covid data coming from?

We know someone that died in Mexico (not near GTO) and others hospitalized. Those people got tests to confirm infection. Otherwise, people showing symptoms, but not requiring hospitalization, were simply told to stay home and quarantine. My wife's sister was feeling sick and could not get a test at the hospital, though she could have opted to pay privately.

Trying to find data, this is what I've found so far----https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/mexico?country=~MEX I don't know if this is the best information available, as it might not be collecting from all available sources, but does agree with anecdotal cases we've heard of.

It shows about 1 million total confirmed cases, about 5,000 per day in recent weeks, fatality rate of 10%, and a test positivity rate of about 55%. The positivity rate alarming (highest in the world) and generally demonstrates that tests aren't conducted unless the person is already sick, hence the low overall numbers of confirmed cases and the high fatality rate. Looking at these numbers another way, less than 10,000 tests (5,000 divided by 55%) are being done per day vs over a million tests per day in the US.

[jesm]

Sorry to hear of your losses and with hopes for better times for us all.
Gto State # we track: https://coronavirus.guanajuato.gob.mx/
for a huge menu of data worldwide: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
Mex in detail: https://datos.covid-19.conacyt.mx/

Bad trends all around presently.
Stay safe.,

[McNally del Campo]

I like the way everything gets broken down on those sites. It does confirm nearly the same numbers though---- positivity rate around 45%, 1 million confirmed cases, 10% death rate. Therefore, the actual number of cases must be dramatically higher, at least 10x on the low end.

I remember in the US when the death count hit 200k, the CDC put out a report that looked at the increase of overall number of deaths (how many people typically die in a period of time--- heart attacks, cancer, car crashes, etc) compared to the covid attributed death rate. It was 50% higher and pointed to actual numbers that would make covid caused deaths around 300k. I'm curious what those numbers would be like for Mexico.

[jesm]

That positivity rate 45% is terrifying. That indicates for every 2 people tested about 1 is infected. In other words, this virus is near everywhere throughout the community. As members of the susceptible cohort it reinforces our absolute necessity to avoid crowds, even small, and certainly any indoors.
Lockdown conditions, whether mandated or based on simple fear, will continue until the vaccine is readily available or a fool proof therapeutic is found.

[McNally del Campo]

Yes, it does look pretty bad. I do find it bothersome that its difficult to dig through the numbers in order to figure out how prevalent covid is. I wish news agencies would focus more on the numbers of likely cases, rather than just reporting the confirmed ones. Mexico is a prime example of how Trump wanted to deal with the virus--- as long as you're not testing, the numbers falsely look promising.

[doncoulter]

Bloomberg looked at the world's 53 richest countries and found that Mexico was the "worst place to be in the coronavirus era."
https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/coronav...virus-era/

Zeroing in on the state of Guanajuato, I read yesterday that it was the third-worst state for Covid.

[wmeleney]

Mikel1..So sorry for your loss. My friend James is there in GTO and he’s doing fine, mostly staying home. I want to get out of USA, but frustratingly stymied. I have felt very comfortable in GTO, but it’s hard to get there from Seattle. Easier to get to Costa Rica, my second choice for ex-pat residence.